Walt Disney World is having a sluggish summer time. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are lifeless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nevertheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait instances are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to drag new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the information and provide our theories for the summer time slowdown.

The one factor summer time hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first revealed: Summer season Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the standard knowledge that Memorial Day via Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer time crowds weren’t as dangerous as prior to now. It provided a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.

Final yr, we adopted that up with Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. If you’d like a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Droop, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this yr is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to date in Summer season 2025.

You would possibly discover that the titles of those posts have ‘advanced’ over time. The primary was that summer time just isn’t peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer time is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This development began a couple of decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with at present makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because general Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even method its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)

The truth is, Summer season 2025 has been so sluggish to date that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. After I first began engaged on this, there was a powerful case to be made that this summer time was proving to be the low season. The final week forged doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the truth that August and September will likely be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?

From my perspective, the reply is not any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer time is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose which means. So as a substitute we’ll keep on with cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer time has change into. It’s undoubtedly not peak season, however it additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.

Though June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll seemingly be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as a complete) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by increased highs to steadiness out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the way in which of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we must always name summer time the “constantly uncomfortable season,” which is obscure but 100% correct.

Earlier than we talk about the potential explanations for why summer time is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait instances. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.

June 2025 Crowds

June has been the slowest month of the yr up to now, with a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd stage of two/10. As at all times, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are doable for the headliners at peak instances. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile points of interest.

There have additionally been loads of days which were busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. In contrast, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait instances bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.

To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer time, it’s value declaring that at the same time as June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to date in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two actually ‘lifeless’ days. The truth is, when you zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final yr. There have been many dates from final August via December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a job in September and October).

Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. This can be a development that’s a number of years working, however is amplified throughout summer time and minimized as soon as Occasion Season begins. As a complete, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).

For those who’re attempting to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer time, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer time journey, and you may in all probability anticipate one thing comparable in June 2026. Aside from that, not likely a ton that’s value speaking about. Summer season is the least fascinating season for crowds because it tends to be essentially the most constant.

Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when analyzing the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Yr’s, or in Winter 2026.

Mainly, any concept that may be contradicted by increased crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. increased costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining status). This will likely appear apparent, however it’s nonetheless mandatory as a result of discussing attendance has change into a loaded concern with many followers who wish to see their very own narratives strengthened. For those who imagine that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s definitely your prerogative, however X or Y as a proof type of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’ll, later this yr.

With that out of the way in which, let’s speak theories as to why summer time is slower now than it was again within the day…

Epic Universe

We would as effectively begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I imagine it’s the #1 clarification for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However relatively, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”

My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no web impression on summer time crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some impression on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this yr. That’s unquestionably taking place. Nevertheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando as a consequence of Epic Universe and likewise visiting Walt Disney World in consequence (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).

It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which aspect is “profitable,” as a result of we now have knowledge. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.

On a mean day this summer time, Epic Universe is greeting fewer visitors than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait instances typically replicate excessive attendance, they’ll additionally replicate low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to date: excessive wait instances as a consequence of low throughput masking low attendance (obtained all that?!).

We will additionally look to attend instances knowledge for Common Orlando. The resort as a complete is about on par with final yr’s numbers, however when you take a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer time), they’re down in Summer season 2025 versus final yr. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.

Worldwide Journey

In the course of the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen a success to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).

When it comes to the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new improvement), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for latest worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an impression” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.

What Disney expects going ahead is one thing just like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, knowledge reveals that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting the same dynamic from Europe.

Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal knowledge reinforces), worldwide vacationers are usually not that important of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed dwelling, it will be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s taking place. It’s a downtick of some share factors, at most.

It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Larger Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, they usually’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger site visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger site visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month complete stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.

Worldwide site visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier document from the summer time of 2019, with a mean of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. In fact, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was almost 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed via the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can let you know that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!

Financial Uncertainty

Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they have to be “sensible about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place shoppers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their latest earnings calls.)

Johnston mentioned that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase have been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate desires to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of instances.”

All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer time. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you can get the least expensive Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since at the very least 2019. That’s type of loopy when you notice how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. This can be a development we anticipate to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting costlier and summer time additional lowering in 2026 and past.

On the identical time, we’ve repeatedly cited client confidence, financial nervousness, ongoing inflation, Individuals being squeezed from each course, and extra as explanation why Walt Disney World may see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we hold listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American client is and the way “strong” spending stays.

It might appear that individuals specific worry, nervousness, and issues when surveyed about these items, however then behave in a different way. (The truth is, survey knowledge additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader economic system versus their very own funds–and has been for a number of years.) In different phrases, this can be a non-factor…for now?

Starlight Delays

Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Evening Parade and/or Take a look at Observe opening, just like the pre-Star Wars Droop of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of visitors postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor have been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.

They have been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an fascinating subject in and of itself (one in every of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new points of interest has given visitors chilly toes about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.

Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 as a consequence of Epic Universe (visitors “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they may from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t suppose the (constructive) Epic impact will likely be all that significant.

Shifting Schedules

Again after we first tackled this subject in 2017, shifting schedules was provided as one clarification–extra faculties switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden incidence that started in the previous couple of years. Faculty calendars have been trending this fashion for a decade or extra.

I’m far more receptive to this clarification now. The truth is, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that in all probability isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer season is essentially the most handy time for many households to go to as a consequence of faculty breaks. That is the rationale for summer time being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer time has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very cause.

Nevertheless, we’d posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from an increasing number of readers who do precisely this. We will’t again it up with arduous stats, however it passes the scent take a look at and appears extremely believable to us.

Equally as necessary given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many Individuals have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work continues to be a viable possibility for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new era of digital nomads.

As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in various locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates have been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the perfect clarification, in our view, because it reveals the redistribution of attendance in motion.

Excessive Warmth & Humidity

Summer season being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida just isn’t a latest improvement, so this shouldn’t be a year-over-year non-factor. Nevertheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures constantly within the 90s, with “appears like” temperatures effectively above 100º.

In line with the corporate, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling subject a pair years in the past that it drew a proof from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand and unseasonably dangerous climate, even by summer time in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on a number of extra events.

It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first cause for decrease attendance. Provided that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this clarification strikes us as believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer season 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.

Relating to climate, the large wild card now could be consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down obstacles, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of varied books and assets is made plainly seen and introduced in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other totally to see your favourite vlogger sweat their approach round World Showcase. The previous you may be extra more likely to dismiss, questioning simply how dangerous it might be. The latter is far more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.

Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of college, and there’s a situation the place households have elevated data coupled with decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip faculty would possibly merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.

This extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep dwelling when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them would possibly bear the climate if Disney offers them a cause to take action, as was once the case with summer time celebrations. That hasn’t been true for a number of years, although. On high of that, I might hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants just isn’t suited to summer time climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning throughout the summer time months (disproportionate to native Floridians).

This comfort-seeking habits additionally explains why appears like crowds or congestion are decrease throughout the summer time. Whereas within the winter visitors would possibly wander round having fun with the ambiance of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly may imply that wait instances are elevated relative to attendance throughout the summer time months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks typically look lifeless from June via September even when the wait instances don’t at all times replicate that.

Shorter Hours

I really feel like a damaged document about this, however again after we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours have been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each evening, with night Additional Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.

Having the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer time warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We may begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a simple solution to mitigate the excessive warmth.

Fortunately, Starlight will deliver again these 11 pm closings, however it’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is at present open for an hour after sundown. There’s a cause why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra standard throughout the summer time months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks like a vicious cycle for summer time park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.

No Particular Occasions

Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer time numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can not schedule runDisney races or outside ESPN Large World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s seemingly that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees the same summer time slowdown.

It’s as soon as once more Weight loss program EPCOT throughout the summer time, with that being telegraphed far upfront for 2025. (Final yr, at the very least there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be honest, there may be GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer season because the summer time push, however that’s largely advertising and marketing. It’s not just like the summer time ‘spectaculars’ of outdated, and I can not think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer season. (The reductions are a distinct story.)

All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new pageant at EPCOT or a revival of Summer season Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer time an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Perhaps we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.

Minimal Mitigation

I additionally really feel like a damaged document about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its latest expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the yr. There’s little shade providing a solution to escape the warmth or summer time showers.

It’s truthfully mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely completed nothing by way of mitigation measures, however they’ve as a substitute actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The most well-liked and latest areas of the parks–the locations individuals spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable throughout the summer time has seemingly contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less comfy at Walt Disney World.

There are seemingly different variables I’m overlooking that might assist clarify why summer time attendance has been down. Different elements may be at play, and in combination could have a noticeable impression, however I believe these variables can be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.

In the end, it’s true that wait instances have been below-average to date in Summer season 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to average. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a latest improvement. Summer season being slower was the new-normal for a number of years pre-COVID closures, and that development has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait instances we’re at present seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since at the very least 2019 may reverse the development. It’ll be fascinating to see which new levers they pull for 2026.

Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer time all of a sudden appears like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. For those who beforehand dominated out a summer time trip to Walt Disney World, take into account the chance that you simply did so for good cause. I’m not saying you’ll have a nasty time–as we regularly say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is best than an ideal day at dwelling.” That’s true as at all times.

What I’ll say is that no matter “features” you’ll expertise throughout summer time at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait instances will likely be worn out by subjectively inferior all the things else. For those who pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I might select the latter with out hesitation. I might take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular taking place. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by the entire above, it will appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.

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Your Ideas

Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer time crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree totally, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits throughout the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions beneath within the feedback!