Strava, the celebrity operating/biking app, now has a subscriber-only AI function that can predict how briskly it thinks you could possibly run a 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon. The predictions use a unique methodology from these you may see from different sources, although. 

For me, Strava’s predictions look much less correct than those I get from Garmin and Runna, however the function is simply too new to say for certain how correct they are going to be for everyone else.

Tips on how to view your race predictions in Strava

Race predictions are solely out there to Strava premium members. That membership runs $11.99/month or $79.99/12 months and in addition will get you mapping instruments and further analytics, like targets and health scores. 

For those who’re a premium member, you’ll find your predictions within the cellular app by going to the You tab (backside proper while you’re wanting on the dwelling display screen), then tapping Progress on the prime of the display screen. Proper beneath your weekly mileage, you’ll see your race time predictions. The function is at the moment solely out there on cellular, not within the net app. 

To have sufficient knowledge for a prediction, it’s worthwhile to have logged a minimum of 20 run actions within the final 24 weeks, Strava says. The predictions will replace after every run, and after three days with out operating. Along with telling you how briskly it thinks you may run proper now, Strava’s AI will even let you know how this compares to your predicted time from 30 days in the past. The predictions assume that your race can be on flat floor in good climate. 

How Strava’s predictions evaluate to different apps and formulation

You might have seen race predictions earlier than—for instance, in your Garmin watch or on web sites like vdoto2.com. These normally use a mathematical formulation, whereas Strava’s new predictions are powered by “Athlete Intelligence,” which the corporate describes as a machine studying (ML) mannequin.

Right here’s what Strava says concerning the function: 

“Strava’s Efficiency Prediction function is powered by an ML mannequin that leverages over 100 athlete knowledge attributes, together with all-time run historical past and prime performances. Not like different race predictors that depend on theoretical inputs like estimated VO2 max, Strava solely makes use of actual exercise knowledge to foretell race outcomes. The system additionally leverages the performances of athletes with comparable coaching histories, so estimated occasions are sensible and primarily based on what has been achieved by different customers with comparable capabilities.”

In different phrases, the app is doing a little AI magic: taking a look at all people else’s coaching and race occasions, contemplating yours, and guessing the way you may measure as much as the mixture. I requested whether or not Strava had carried out any testing to see how properly the info compares to real-life race outcomes, however to date haven’t acquired a solution. (I’ll replace if I hear again.) 

Actually the anticipated outcomes I am getting are fairly completely different from what I’m seeing elsewhere. I’ve been logging all my runs with Garmin and Strava for a number of months now, and right here’s how their race time predictions evaluate: 

• 5K (3.1 miles): Strava says I can run this race in 29:22 (up 21 seconds within the final 30 days); Garmin says 26:02 (down 50 seconds up to now 4 weeks)

• 10K (6.2 miles): Strava predicts 1:01:50 (up 5 seconds); Garmin says 55:31 (down about 90 seconds)

• Half marathon (13.1 miles): Strava says 2:24:57 (up 2:43); Garmin says 2:07:09 (down about three minutes) 

• Marathon (26.2 miles): Strava says 5:04:04 (up 1:50); Garmin says 4:45:58 (down 7:44)

I’m not shocked that they differ, but it surely’s unusual that Strava thinks I’m getting slower, the place Garmin thinks I’m getting quicker.

I don’t have any tremendous current race occasions to check these to, however final fall I ran a 5K in 26:04. The morning of the race, Garmin predicted I’d run it in 25:50, so the Garmin was solely 14 seconds too optimistic. In line with that very same Garmin algorithm, I’m near that very same health stage proper now, so I’d wager cash that if I ran a 5K this weekend, I’d be within the low 26 minute vary. 

I’m at the moment working via a 5K plan with the Runna app, and it predicts a 26:15 end time at my present health. (For the opposite distances: 55:50, 2:08:22, 4:45:33). On a gut-check foundation, this one sounds probably the most right to me, a minimum of for the 5K. 

I do not belief Strava’s predictions

Strava’s prediction of 29:22 sounds approach too gradual to me. In actual fact, in line with knowledge I can search for in my Strava account, this previous weekend I ran 5 kilometers in 30:03 (only a smidge slower than its 5K race prediction) throughout a five-mile run. That wasn’t a race, and I used to be clearly pacing myself for a five-mile effort reasonably than a three-mile one. 

Based mostly on my 5K time of 26:04 (once more, an older time, but it surely’s most likely near my true health stage), the easy calculator at vdoto2.com thinks I might do a 10K in 54:10, a half in 2:00:23, and a full marathon in 4:07:43. Calculators are usually a bit of too optimistic, particularly in the event you put in a shorter race time and ask it to extrapolate out to lengthy distances. So I wouldn’t count on to run a 4:07 marathon anytime quickly. 

Judging from boards just like the r/Strava subreddit, the jury continues to be out on accuracy. Right here’s someone who ran a 10K in 56:34, however the app predicts 57:58—a quantity they simply beat by virtually a minute and a half. Then again, a number of runners in this thread say that their Strava predictions appear fairly correct. Solely operating a race will let you know for certain.